How Long Until TON Achieves Mass Adoption Compared to WeChat?(Ⅱ)

Monetization of Traffic

TON provides excellent payment tools, such as Web3 payment tools Telegram Wallet and TON Space, as well as Web2 payment tools like Telegram Star. However, many products that best match user needs do not use paid monetization methods, such as free tools and casual games. These free products often struggle to establish a stable and reliable business model, which is a crucial prerequisite for achieving mass adoption. The shortcomings in commercialization services/infrastructure within the TON ecosystem seem to be a significant barrier to developing products that achieve mass adoption.

On the issue of sustainable business models, there are participants working towards solutions. MiniTon, funded by the TON Foundation, is a commercialization service provider that offers a TaaS (Tournaments as a Service) revenue model for casual and competitive game developers. This model helps them move beyond reliance on advertising for monetization and reconstructs the social operation model of games based on the Friend Tech protocol to establish a stable Web3 business model.

The revenue model for competitive gaming (EF & RK) is considered one of the three main monetization models alongside ad-based (IAA) and in-app purchase (IAP) models. This model is widely used in PvP games like chess, which have a market size exceeding $30 billion annually in the Web2 market and are among the best-selling categories in social applications, often driving mass adoption in Web2. MiniTon leverages crypto technology to seamlessly integrate the competitive gaming revenue model with Telegram. Additionally, it uses crypto social protocols to optimize the operation model for PvP games in a $30 billion market.

In its early development stages, MiniTon received significant investment and incubation from Waterdrip Capital. MiniTon now offers players a social competitive platform that allows them to experience esports even in single-player casual games and build new social connections through game battle contracts. Developers can integrate MiniTon’s monetization solution by incorporating the SDK, which requires only 1.5 days of development time.

As of now, MiniTon has completed its Alpha I closed beta test, with 30,000 users participating and achieving a 1% conversion rate. It is expected to launch the Alpha II test version by the end of September, expanding the testing scale to hundreds of thousands of users.

Notably, MiniTon’s game contracts are a multi-chain protocol, which means they do not rely solely on a single ecosystem and thus possess strong systemic risk resistance.

  1. What Can the TON Ecosystem Learn from WeChat’s Successes and Failures?

4.1 Is WeChat Worth Referencing?

Both WeChat and Telegram are social products based on communication and social relationships. However, there are significant differences between Telegram users and WeChat users. The following is an overview of Telegram user data for the past week, according to third-party monitoring:

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Telegram User Data Overview, Data Source: Waterdrip Capital

4.2 Differences in User Profiles between Telegram and WeChat

Apart from geographic distribution differences, the most notable contrast between Telegram and WeChat lies in user habits:

  • WeChat is a typical acquaintance-based social network with strong social relationships. Telegram, on the other hand, is more of a general social networking application, similar to QQ.

  • The average daily usage time for WeChat users is 1.5 hours, while for Telegram users it is 0.5 hours.

As of the end of June 2024, WeChat Mini Programs have reached an astonishing 930 million monthly active users, with a penetration rate exceeding 90%. The core reasons for developers’ success in the WeChat Mini Program ecosystem are:

  • Ultra-lightweight User Access Path: No need to download or enter a URL; users can access with a single click.

  • Effective Social-Based User Acquisition: About 60% of traffic comes from user sharing.

  • New Incremental Market: In February 2024, WeChat Mini Games had 755 million monthly active users, surpassing the 650 million users of mobile game apps.

  • Efficient Commercialization Service System:With WeChat Ads and WeChat Pay, Mini Games revenue reached $3 billion in 2023.

Telegram Mini Programs already possess the first three advantages mentioned above. However, compared to WeChat, Telegram’s shortcomings are also prominent:

  • Weak User Payment Capability: Most users come from low-paying regions.

  • Inaccurate Targeting: Due to privacy protection principles, precise marketing services similar to WeChat Ads cannot be provided, making it difficult to reach high-net-worth or targeted users.

  • Low Payment Penetration: The penetration rate of Telegram Wallet is only 5%, while WeChat Pay’s penetration rate is 92.4%.

Nevertheless, Telegram remains the most penetrative product in the crypto space. By targeting the existing high-net-worth crypto users, the shortcomings of Telegram Mini Programs can be mitigated. Therefore, WeChat Mini Programs’ successful model is worth referencing.

4.3 Project Development Pathways from WeChat Mini Programs / Mini Games Ecosystem

By reviewing the development trajectory of WeChat Mini Games, it is evident that the survival of WeChat Mini Game developers highly depends on the level of developer services provided by WeChat.

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WeChat Mini Programs Development Timeline and Project Examples, Source: Waterdrip Capital

WeChat Mini Programs’ Evolution Timeline

Wild Growth Phase

During this phase, WeChat’s operations lagged behind, and the ecosystem experienced unregulated growth. Due to the ease of acquiring a large number of users through viral sharing, there was a proliferation of “reskinned” games—developed in 5 days and recouped costs in 3 days post-launch—resulting in rough game quality.

The mini-game distribution during this period was decentralized, primarily relying on other mini-programs and WeChat ads for user acquisition.

Revenue for mini-games and free mini-programs during this time mainly came from advertising (IAA) monetization—introducing users from other mini-games or mini-programs and integrating WeChat ad monetization plugins.

Key Takeaway for Web3 Developers: At this stage, Telegram is similarly positioned. Excluding the phenomenon-level game “Pirates Are Coming,” 98% of the top 50 games in this period were casual and casual competitive games. Examples include “Happy Landlord,” “Number Match,” “Brain Fight,” “Geometry Escape,” and “I Want to Be the Emperor,” with “I Want to Be the Emperor” featuring gameplay similar to that of today’s Catizen.

2020 - 2022: Ecosystem Adjustment

During this period, which included the COVID-19 pandemic, there were unique macro factors, such as the health code mini-program gaining 800 million users in 2020.

By October 2022, WeChat Mini Programs had reached 1 billion monthly active users. The WeChat Mini Program ecosystem worked to scale traditional industries like education, healthcare, and dining, while also guiding the gaming industry to improve product quality. Developers were provided with over 100 features and interfaces, continually enhancing commercialization services (IAA and IAP).

During this time, the only phenomenon-level product in WeChat Mini Games was “Sheep Are Here.” Due to WeChat’s increased demands for game content quality and restrictions on viral sharing behaviors, the mini-games ecosystem exhibited a “smile curve.” However, WeChat’s operational strategy was successful, with 50 top games earning over 50 million each, and 7 games generating over 100 million.

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Key Takeaway for Web3 Developers: During this period, the best-selling games remained casual competitive products, such as card games. From a gameplay perspective, card games, MMORPGs, simulation, and idle games had the highest revenue.

2023 to Present: Stability with Explosive Growth

Thanks to WeChat Mini Games’ continued encouragement for developers to create high-quality content and ongoing optimization of technical support, a large number of mid-to-heavy revenue games emerged.

According to Tencent’s Q1 2024 report, total user time on WeChat Mini Programs increased by over 20% year-over-year. In 2023, WeChat Mini Games’ revenue grew 3 times compared to 2022, with over 240 games generating more than 10 million in quarterly revenue within a year.

Reasons for the Explosion in WeChat Mini Programs / Mini Games during This Period:

  • Allowing WeChat Mini Games and Mini Programs to advertise on external platforms (e.g., Douyin) improved ad efficiency.

  • Added live streaming acquisition channels.

  • Top-selling game categories shifted from mostly card games to MMORPGs, idle, card games, and simulation.

  • Commercialization shifted from a single IAA or IAP model to a mixed monetization model (both IAA and IAP).

4.4 Lessons TON Can Learn from the Growth of WeChat Mini Programs

  • Continuously Address Developer Concerns (PMF): Improve compatibility with game engines, enhance user acquisition efficiency, open external performance marketing channels outside Telegram for Telegram Mini Programs, increase wallet penetration rates, and provide more support for commercialization solutions.

  • Rapid Market Response: Adapt quickly to market changes, similar to WeChat’s early practice of adjusting ecosystem operation policies monthly.

  • Support for Startup Products: Provide support for each new product, such as offering special, free traffic support policies for each mini-program, similar to WeChat’s selection policies.

  • Encourage High-Quality Content Creation: Foster the production of high-quality content within the ecosystem.