Mass adoption has always been a core challenge for Web3. However, the market often focuses on short-term wealth effects and overlooks the key factors for achieving mass adoption and project sustainability. Since the launch of Bitcoin (BTC) in 2009, among various sectors, only centralized exchanges like Binance have managed to achieve mass adoption, with user numbers exceeding 200 million, making them the first major Web3 product to reach this milestone.
With the approval of the BTC ETF, the market has entered a bull run unique to BTC OGs and believers. In contrast, due to insufficient liquidity, new coins have underperformed, and altcoins have not yet shown the vibrant growth seen in the last bull market. The number of crypto users grew from less than 50 million in 2019 to 420 million in 2022, a tenfold increase. However, from early 2024 to now, the global number of crypto users has only grown by 30 million, with growth rates lagging significantly behind the previous bull market.
Global Web3 User Growth Chart, Data Source: Triple-A, Cryptocurrency Ownership Data – Triple-A
From a first principles perspective, the fundamental reason for this gap is that it is now crucial to focus on mass adoption.
Obstacles to Mass Adoption in Web3
A16Z emphasizes in its “Big Ideas in Tech 2024” report that simplifying user experience is fundamental to achieving mass adoption in Web3.
Binance, in its “Road to One Billion On-Chain Users” report, identifies two core conditions for mass adoption: first, there must be on-chain applications that users want to use; second, these applications must be easy to understand and access. Many products that have achieved product-market fit (PMF) and successfully navigated through market cycles validate these two core conditions. Additionally, the crypto industry needs to build the necessary infrastructure, tools, and public awareness to make the concept of “digital ownership” easily understandable and accessible to a global audience.
Mark Suster, Managing Partner at Upfront Ventures, notes that to build products for mass adoption, it is crucial not only to achieve PMF but also to ensure that the product can generate continuous revenue and target a sufficiently large market.
Mass adoption is not just about acquiring users; it is also about capturing the liquidity users hold.
IOBC Capital points out that addressing the compliance channels for traditional institutions entering Web3 is also key to achieving mass adoption. Compliance issues are seen as a soft infrastructure, and with the approval of BTC/ETH ETFs, the establishment of BlackRock’s RWA fund, and candidates incorporating Web3 development into their election promises, the development of relevant policies and compliance channels is progressing steadily and irreversibly.
Summary: Conditions for Mass Adoption in Web3
For Web3 to achieve mass adoption, the following conditions need to be met:
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Address a Genuine Need (Product-Market Fit, PMF): The product must solve a real problem or fulfill a significant need.
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Target Market Size: The market should consist of at least billions of people or be worth tens of billions of dollars.
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Low User Adoption Barriers and High Usability: The product should be easy to use with minimal barriers to entry for users.
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Mature Supporting Infrastructure: The upstream and downstream infrastructure supporting the core value and experience of the product must be well-developed.
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Ability to Acquire Users at Scale and with Precision:The product must be capable of attracting a large number of users effectively.
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Sustainable Business Model: There must be a long-term, viable revenue model to support ongoing operations.
Currently, conditions 1 through 4 are being actively addressed by various projects in the Web3 space, and Telegram and TON contribute to condition 5. However, progress on condition 6 remains limited. The core issue here is:
-PMF ≠ Business Model: Having a great product does not necessarily equate to profitability.
Without a sustainable revenue model, it is challenging to acquire users at scale and with precision over the long term. Airdrops can provide an initial low-cost boost, but without ongoing profitability, it is unlikely that users will continue to support the project in the long term.
Reflecting on the previous cycle, DeFi, GameFi, NFTs, and the Metaverse all provided significant momentum for mass adoption. These projects met several of the above requirements: Axie Infinity and YGG addressed income issues for unemployed people in the Philippines during the pandemic, while STEPN matched users’ fitness needs and reduced adoption barriers through an integrated wallet. Despite their significant achievements, many of these projects failed to sustain their mass adoption missions due to a lack of sustainable business models, with non-financial returns failing to motivate users to pay. This offers valuable lessons and insights.
Advantages and Challenges of the TON Ecosystem in Achieving Mass Adoption
3.1 Advantages
Social Network with 1 Billion Users: Massive User Acquisition Potential
As of now, Telegram has 950 million monthly active users, and its social network provides ample opportunities for viral marketing. Social viral marketing (word-of-mouth) is one of the most effective methods for large-scale user acquisition, which is a crucial prerequisite for achieving mass adoption.
Comparison of Web2 Marketing Methods and Channel Effectiveness Data Source: Miniton
Leveraging the advantages of the TON ecosystem, several ecosystem projects with tens of millions of users have been successfully launched, with 60% of active projects being in the gaming sector. Notably, Notcoin was the first to achieve this milestone, attracting over 35 million crypto users since its launch. Its token, $NOT, went from listing to being published on exchanges in less than a month and saw a 400% increase within two weeks of listing, making it one of the standout altcoins in this bull market.
Attracting Developers through Mini Programs—Maximizing End-User Needs (PMF)
For ecosystems and infrastructure, achieving product-market fit (PMF) is a probabilistic challenge. An ecosystem can address the PMF issue by increasing the number of products—eventually, one of these products will meet user needs. Clearly, the combination of Telegram mini programs and the TON ecosystem has attracted a large number of developers to create numerous mini programs, aiming to meet various user demands.
Developers are drawn to Telegram and TON for a clear reason: a large user base and high conversion rates from exposure to application usage. Mini programs provide the shortest access path for users, eliminating the need to enter a URL or download an app. This not only lowers the barrier to user adoption but also improves conversion rates for acquiring users.
Banana Gun is a Telegram bot that launched on Binance on July 18, 2024. It facilitates both automated and manual trading on the Ethereum network, and supports manual token trades on the Solana network. Banana Gun’s success is undoubtedly supported by the Telegram bot and mini program features and the advantage of reaching users on Telegram.
Highly Integrated MPC Wallet—Low Barrier, High Usability
TON currently offers two wallet tools: Telegram Wallet and TON Space. With the exception of users in the U.S., other users can activate Telegram Wallet by adding the wallet bot and launching TON Space within the Telegram Wallet mini program. When conducting transactions within the Telegram app, from account registration to transfers and payments, Telegram Wallet provides an extremely convenient user experience, comparable to WeChat Pay.
With the low-barrier wallet provided by the TON ecosystem, Catizen achieved a 10% on-chain user conversion rate, boasting 25 million players, approximately 1.5 million on-chain game players, and over 500,000 paying users worldwide, with in-game revenue exceeding $16 million.
On July 23, Binance Incubator announced an investment in Catizen’s issuing platform, Pluto Studio. Binance co-founder and Binance Labs head He Yi stated, “Binance Labs has always been keen to support projects like Pluto Studio that have the potential to attract billions of users to Web3. We look forward to supporting more visionary builders who aim to create products designed for mass adoption.”
3.2 Challenges
Dependence on Telegram
The greatest advantage of the TON ecosystem is its exclusive support from Telegram, being the only Web3 infrastructure integrated with and promoted within Telegram. However, this is also its biggest risk, as any changes within Telegram could have systemic impacts on TON. For example, on the day Telegram founder Pavel Durov was arrested, the TVL (Total Value Locked) of the TON ecosystem dropped by over 60% in a single day, highlighting the systemic risks of relying on a centralized organization.
Underdeveloped DeFi Sector
While users are the foundation of funding, not all products and teams have the capability to monetize traffic effectively. The current general phenomenon of insufficient user payment capacity on Telegram is seen as a product and team issue rather than an ecosystem problem. For instance, Catizen and many trading bots/mini programs have effectively captured liquidity from Telegram traffic. In high-revenue Web2 mini-games on WeChat, about 60% of traffic comes from decentralized product viral growth. Nevertheless, the TVL of the TON ecosystem remains unreasonably low, mainly due to a lack of DeFi projects. Currently, STON.fi and DeDust account for 80% of the total TVL in the TON ecosystem.
Incomplete Commercial Services
Developers’ focus on the ecosystem usually includes four aspects:
- Platform scale
- Completeness of infrastructure
- Efficiency of user reach
- Support for traffic monetization
Among these four aspects, points 3 and 4 relate to commercialization services/infrastructure. In these areas, TON has only achieved about 50% effectiveness.
In terms of reaching users, TON has achieved large-scale efficient outreach. The current user acquisition models for the TON ecosystem primarily involve Telegram Ads’ non-performance marketing CPM approach and mini-programs’ points-wall traffic redirection. However, due to data privacy protection reasons, precise targeting and performance marketing cannot be achieved unless Telegram violates its product principles and collects extensive user privacy data.