Ton price trend using indicator

General
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1

The data provided details on sequence of daily price observations alongside their corresponding (MA), and their respective standard deviations (SD) for a TONCOIN. Let’s go through the key components:

WITH price_avg AS (
SELECT
DATE_TRUNC(‘day’, minute) AS day,
AVG(price) AS price
FROM prices.usd
WHERE
contract_address = FROM_HEX(‘582d872a1b094fc48f5de31d3b73f2d9be47def1’)
AND symbol = ‘TONCOIN’
AND minute >= CURRENT_TIMESTAMP - INTERVAL ‘1’ year
GROUP BY 1
)

SELECT
day,
price,
AVG(price) OVER (ORDER BY day ROWS BETWEEN 5 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS ma_5,
STDDEV(price) OVER (ORDER BY day ROWS BETWEEN 5 PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW) AS sd_5, – Standard Deviation for 5 days
FROM
price_avg;

Data Breakdown:

  • Day: Represents the date of the data entry.
  • Price: The price of TONCOIN on that specific day.
  • ma_5: The 5-day moving average of the price. It represents the average price over the last 5 days and helps smooth out price data by continuously updating the average price.
  • sd_5: The 5-day standard deviation of the price, which measures the amount of variability or dispersion from the 5-day average.

Analysis:

  • Moving Averages (ma_5 ): These are used to identify trends in the price movements. The 5-day moving average provides a short-term trend perspective. When the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term average, it might suggest an upward trend, and vice versa.
  • Standard Deviations (sd_5 ): These values are crucial for understanding the volatility of prices. Higher values indicate greater volatility and risk associated with the TON. They can be particularly useful for traders who are trying to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements based on the dispersion of prices around their mean.

##Based on sql queries, chart provided below will give us insight :

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grapgh780×171 27.1 KB

General findings from the Chart:

Key Observations:

  1. Initial Stability (Sep 2023 - Dec 2023):
  • The data appears to show a stable pattern at the beginning, with relatively low levels of activity in both the moving average and standard deviation.
  1. Increased Activity (Jan 2024 - May 2024):
  • Starting from January 2024, there is a notable increase in the value of the moving average. This uptick continues through April 2024, where the trend appears to peak.
  • Correspondingly, the standard deviation also shows slight increases but remains significantly lower than the moving average, suggesting limited volatility.
  1. Plateau and Decline (May 2024 - August 2024):

  • After JUne 2024, the moving average plateaus and then starts to decline slightly towards the end of the observed period.

  • The standard deviation remains relatively low throughout, indicating that despite the changing trend, volatility does not significantly increase.

  • · The standard deviation line provides insight into how much the price is deviating from its average. Higher spikes in the sd_5 line indicate higher volatility, suggesting significant price changes over short periods.

  • · Periods of high volatility (higher sd_5) can indicate uncertainty or major market events impacting the price, which might be riskier times to trade. Conversely, lower volatility (lower sd_5) suggests more stability in price movements.

In this graph , we see the average and deviation trends.

General Trend: The ma_5, represented by the blue line, indicates the moving average of the TON’s price. It appears to start at a lower value in September 2023, with a general increasing trend that peaks around February 2024.

Volatility Observations: The sd_5, indicated by the red markers, shows the level of price volatility or risk associated with the cryptocurrency. The standard deviation markers appear quite consistently low throughout the period, suggesting that the price movements were not extremely erratic on most days.

Practical Use:

  • Investors and Traders: These metrics are invaluable for making informed decisions. For example, a trader might look for low standard deviation combined with an upward trend in moving averages as a potential buy signal.
  • Risk Management: Understanding the volatility (via standard deviations) can help in risk assessment and management, adjusting strategies to either hedge or embrace the volatility depending on the trader’s risk appetite.

Overall, this detailed statistical approach provides a robust framework for analyzing TON price movements, helping stakeholders to make strategic decisions based on trends and volatility patterns in the market.

Please note that this is not investment advice. Market trends can vary depending on various factors that are not solely related to the economy,politics but also to psychological aspects.